A Rule-based Modal Framework for Causal Reasoning

Abstract

We present a novel rule-based semantics for causal reasoning as well as a number of modal languages interpreted over it. They enable us to represent some fundamental concepts in the theory of causality including causal necessity, causal necessity post-intervention and causal counterfactuals. We provide complexity results for the satisfiability checking and model checking problems for these modal languages. Moreover, we study the relationship between our rule-based semantics and the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach to causal reasoning. Finally, we use our semantics to elucidate the relationship between causal counterfactuals and belief change.